Published: January 01, 2009 in articles » management by Thomas Baekdal
Every year I try to predict what will happen in the year to come, and this year is no different. So without further ado, here is the Web Trends to look out for in 2009.
The most dominant trend of 2009 is going to be "cocooning". This is a result of the financial crisis, and an exceptionally low consumer satisfaction rating. People are simply going to protect themselves from outside temptations. They are thinking twice about what to buy, what to engage in, what to look at, which tools to use, and how they interact.
In short they are cocooning. It is going to get a lot harder to convince people to try out new things.
This is not limited to people. Companies are going to build even stronger "cocoons" around their businesses, in an effort to focus on their core business and to cut costs.
2009 is also going to be a year filled with mobility. This is not only coming from the smartphones, but from all kinds of different devices. It is going to bring on a new era of "everything, everywhere". An era where people expect to be able to do pretty much everything, at the moment they decide to do so.
The smartphones and 3G connected netbooks are going to be the biggest elements in this movement. But keep an eye out for the gaming consoles too.
In 2008 we saw the social networks "grow up". While it is still surrounded by a lot of buzz, the initial surge of excitement is over. Now it is "a part of life".
The result is going to be two things. First of all, we are going to see a surge of de-friending. Many people, who have tons of "friends", are going to clear out those that they really do not know. We don't have the time to invest in friends with no personal relations. And we don't want to clutter up our "walls" with updates from people we don't know.
Secondly, people will use social networks more, but less of them (that is they will not use both MySpace and Facebook, just one of them). Companies needs to diversify to stay relevant to all (the long tail of marketing).
That said; social networking and social interaction as a whole is going to continue to rise in 2009.
A big area of "web services", in 2009, is going to be in connected social services. It is services that allows you to do something, but output the result somewhere else.
One example is when you can use Twitter to update your status on Facebook. When you use Flickr to manage pictures (and videos), but output them in a photo gallery on your blog, or - again - on Facebook.
Or if you could compare your performance with Nike+ with all your friends on Facebook. That is, you use Nike+ to manage your runs, but use Facebook as the "community" (as opposed to run a separate social network on Nike's own servers).
"Connected social services" is also going to be the biggest challenge for companies, as they find that traditional social marketing is failing.
The last "social" trend for 2009 is going to be new tool for bringing people together, no matter where they are. We have already seen a lot of this with SMS, chat, web cameras, and social networks in general. But in 2009, we will see a lot of new and exciting tools with this purpose in mind.
2009 will be the year when a lot of companies finally discover that traditional efforts are simply no longer useful. The biggest losers will be TV (and TV broadcasting in general), email, SMS, MMS, any form of direct marketing, attention marketing, and even some forms of permission marketing.
In short, push marketing and any form of products that "demand" your attention is not going to work.
On the technical side of the web, we are going to see a big change when it comes to cloud-computing. That is, instead or running "IT" yourself, you outsource it to huge internet-based "data centers".
It is simply not practical to run your own data center. Like when the clothing companies move their production to Asia in the 1990's (and removed all local production facilities in the process), the same is now going to happen to IT departments.
While this trend is starting to make an impact in 2009, it will take quite some time to really make an impact (at least 3-5 years).
Microsoft and Amazon are going to be the biggest players, simply because they are more "compatible" with enterprises. Google will get a lot of attention, but very little actual use (at least in 2009).
We are also going to see a number of new players in the "cloud-computing" world, along with some interesting advances in "cloud-usability".
Note: You should seriously look into this in 2009, if you are a web developer.
The trend of APIs, which really took off in 2008, is going to rise to a much higher level in 2009. Almost all web services will allow some form of API integration to other systems. And, they will be a lot easier to use than the heavy developer-centric system that we see today.
2009 is also going to be the year of sensors. In 2008 we saw the coming of multi-touch, accelerometers, camera, GPS etc. In 2009 there will be a lot of focus on using sensors to enhance the experience. Not just the sensors we see today, but all kinds of sensor technology.
Apart from the big trends above, there are a number of smaller trends
That is my predictions for 2009. What do you think will happen in 2009? Post your thoughts in the comments.
Writer, Project Manager and Interaction Designer
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You make some good points. I agree with almost everything that you have here. Especially the cocooning, de-socializing and websites becoming a hub points.
Keep up the great work!
I've already noticed a lot of this happening in small degrees. I think that you're spot on with all this and I'm looking forward to seeing all this developing further.
Hi Thomas,
What do you think about Virtualization and Information Security? Are these going to be big in the year 2009?
Inder P Singh
I have some comments...
- Once you switch to laptop you dont want to go back, you can carry it wherever you want (around the office or at home... on your bed), it doesnt take up 1/2 your desk space, it looks nice (compared to a desktop computer everything looks nice)... and that is just one part of the advantages... Desktops are on their way out... except for hardcore gamers.... but nowadays they have consoles for that. Im sure the laws of the market will give engineers enough motivation to figure ways to keep cramming more processing power in them. BTW this situation might benefit OSX and ubuntu, both gentle on the hardware. Microsoft has gone crazy with resource usage in Vista, and with people switching to laptops it doesnt do them any good.
- I think the trend, first seen in notebooks and consoles above will further progress toward compact and more specialised devices. The desktkop computer with 8 usb ports and 5 PCI extension slots is so yesterday. In the future you will see more and more devices that do one thing only, and do it well.
- Facebook - Some users, instead of de-friending, will just choose to log into facebook much less or just when they are expecting to receive something.
- HTML is getting old. Nowadays, vista aero windows look much better then the contents of the web browser... that means something might (should?) be attempted to move web applications to something that resembles more an OS application window, and that is more aesthetic.
What are some examples of "Cross-device internet applications?" Not sure what you mean by the term.
- Pete
I m 100% agree with Thomas article..
As Mobile is the future. And Mobile is really hitting the marketing now...
Cloud computing is being resisted. This is largely due to companies not trusting MS and Google to keep their data secure. EU legislation also prevents data from leaving its borders. This is an issue that MS has not addressed in its offerings yet.
I have already seen the demise of the desktop computer at major retailers in London. They are being replaced by all-in-ones because they look better, are more compact and they do away with cable spaghetti. Laptops are the way forward though.
I hear ya, thanks Thomas good stuff. Couldn't agree with you more on the cross device platform. We're almost done with that and it may not be the extent of what you are referring to since ours is a cross platform game where BB, WM, iPhone, Android users can all play each other. But social gaming is apart of the 2009 trend is what I'm saying.
I think the integration of reality and web will be something we'll see as well.
Damn thats close to the truth, although I think you might be ahead of the curve with a few things...lol
Love your stuff!
outstanding workThomas... keep up the good work!
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Jan 7
2009
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