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Web Trends 2007 for Web Developers
2007 is here, and so it is time to look ahead and provide some wild guesses as to what will come.
A year in transition
Overall I think 2007 will be the year of transition. In the last couple of years we have seen a lot of activity with AJAX, Web 2.buzz (usually referred to as Web 2.0), the social web etc.
In 2007 we are going to see several kinds of transitions.
- The late-comers (a very big user group) will gradually use the same services as the rest of us have been using for a long time. Sites like Digg, MySpace, Flickr, Del.icio.us etc. will all see an increase of new users - from this user group.
- The front-runners will grow tired of the same services, and start using other things - or use it in a more balanced way.
- The techno-hipsters (those who create web-things because it makes them look cool), will also go on to do other things - causing much of the Web 2.0 atmosphere to thin out.
- The trend-makers will already have left - and started looking at what to do next.
2.0 will die - and become a mark of losers
2006 was all about "2.0". It started with Web 2.0, but now we see all kinds of "2.0's". It will still make headlines with the press, but for those who really matters it is the mark of a failed experiment - and of good intentions gone bad.
If you call something "2.0" in 2007 you will automatically label it "I failed" (and do not even think about calling it Web 3.0, unless you want to sound desperate).
BTW: You might consider your exit strategy...
Vista will give birth to a lot of interesting experiments.
Atlas, Microsoft Expression, Windows Presentation Foundations, are all applications/systems with incredible potential. We have already seen a few (mostly poor) examples of what to come.
The main reason I am excited about this is that Microsoft is way ahead of the pack in terms of rich media internet applications. Although they have not really made anything really spectacular yet, the very existence of these new technologies will get people moving.
Lack of Interoperability becomes a big problem
2005-2006 was really about allowing people to share and communicate through an amazing amount of new services. But, although a few of them offer API's none offer interoperability with other systems. What we are currently seeing is a fragmented internet - desperately in need to be cleaned up.
The Web will slow down - momentarily
Since 2007 is a year of transition, there will be a somewhat less activity until the trend-makers come up with something new.
xHTML + JavaScript will get into trouble
2005-2006 was really the rebirth of xHTML + JavaScript, but as web applications starts to get more and more advanced, people will also realized that these technologies is not up to the task. WPF and Next-gen Flash will gradually take over as the development platform of choice (with emphasis on gradually).
The internet becomes the foundation
We already see this in many computers game and with Second Life - both something that could not work without the internet. In 2007 we will see internet usage increase tremendously as the basis of other applications/systems.
BTW: Do not confuse this with the Web (the thing you see with a browser).
Other things to notice:
- Adobe is said to release a new version of Flash, specifically targeted web application development. That could be interesting.
- Online movie sites will probably make a big breakthrough in 2007.
- Flash video will reach its peak - and become a standard component just like images are today.
- A lot of companies will try to do something with RSS, but without any really spectacular results.
- RSS will be used more, but the awareness of it will be less.
- Enterprises will venture into web based services as a platform for work (but only in terms of specialized applications)
- There will be a lot of talk about Microsoft vs. Google - but nothing will really change.
- Firefox will gain some market share, but their fan-base will be smaller.
- Mobile internet will grow, but without any significant changes.
See last year's trends
- Web Trends 2006 for Web Developers, Baekdal.com (December 2005)
Comments
Thomas Baekdal - Jan. 9, 2007
No, I am definitely not paid to write it!
But, you are right, it is al ready happening. But it is going to get a lot bigger than what we see now.
thomas Baekdal - Jan. 9, 2007
BTW: Check out Karsten Januszewski site for some of these experiements.
Blaise Kal - Jan. 27, 2007
"The trend-makers will already have left - and started looking at what to do next."
So what's REALLY next?
Mav - Feb. 14, 2007
Just because you didn't make a lot of money during this craze doesn't mean it was a failed experiment. The social net is only going to grow whether you like it or not.
Lawrence Meckan - Mar. 26, 2007
I agree 100% on the lack of interoperability and user 'ubiquitousness'.
Trying to unify an application that contains Micro formats, MicroID, OpenID, Google Maps, Akismet and a few other API services so each can peacefully co-exist and talk with one another is a painful design process I'm going through at the moment.
Forseeably, 2007 is a year when all the immature apps of 2006 rise or fall through natural selection/survival of the fittest. And once you have a more mature app, you have more of the marketplace.
Annerose - Jun. 21, 2007
These comments have been invaluable to me as is this whole site. I thank you for your comment.
Samitha Fernando - Aug. 16, 2007
I agree with with 2.0 will die - and become a mark of losers. Simply because now there are many more web 2.0 applications. So there is no real competitive advantage. Some good JavaScript programmers using JSON as a alternative to XML. I have a problem if some one using json as a better alternative to xml to develop the web application, is that a web 2.0 implementation or is that beyond web 2.0 ?
chase - Sep. 30, 2007
Would using the web to change the nature of the alarm clock (your voice-mails wake you up, rather then a buzzer) be considered an example of the next step beyond Web 2.0?
The Internet pervading beyond PCs and mobile devices and into our electric appliances. like the alarm clock and the toilet(digital toilet is incubating in Japan and will save our lives!).
T-Bone - Jun. 13, 2008
Looking over your comments for 2006 and 2007 I don't think you really hit the mark on any of them.
Thomas Baekdal - Jun. 13, 2008
Well, you are free to think whatever you like - but I am not sure I agree with you.
"Late comers would use social networking sites", which they did.
2.0 would becoem the mark of losers, which didn't happen. 2.0 managed to correct itself from all the hype in late-2006.
Vista would give birth to interesting experiements, and there was indeed a lot fo interesting concepts put out - remember Microsoft Surface for one.
Interoperability would become a problem. It did, but many services also managed to solve it by adding API, data sharing concepts.
The web would slow down, which it did - at least compared to 2006.
The internet becomes the foundation, which it did in some way, but not in others. Many services are now entirely internet based, and would not work without it.
Adobe would release a new version of Flash - they did.
Online movies would make a big breakthrough - it did, atleast in the US.
Flash video would become standard use - it did.
Rss would be used more, but with less people knowing about it - it did.
Enterprises would start to enter the internet application world - they did (partly).
Lots of talk about MS and Google, but nothing would change - nothing did really change.
So, all in all, I do think I hit the mark with most of my predictions.
Published: Jan. 6, 2007 in Technology
Thomas Baekdal is a Writer, Interaction Designer, Change Advocate and Project Manager.
Sikomat - Jan. 9, 2007
"Vista will give birth to a lot of interesting experiments."
Wake up Dude. The experiments are already running. Vista is just a copy machine, nothing else. All Features are "borrowded" by other good technologies. Are you paid for writing this?